Laba-kaclaynta loolanka Geeska Afrika Qeybi 3

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Tani waa qormadi saddexaad ee aan ku eegayno amuuraha dabada ka riixayo loollanka cusub ee loogu jiro hanashada Geeska Afrika. Qormadi koowaad waxay ahayd gogal xaar. Middi labaad waxaan ku eegnay waddamada loollanka ku jiro iyo waqtiyadii ay kusoo kala biireen hardanka. Qaybtaas waxaan ku khatinnay in faaiidooyin ay ka heleen waddamada lagu loollamayo. Sidoo kale waxaan tilmaannay inay kasoo muuqdaan hardankaan khataro waaweyn oo dhibaatooyin u horseedi kara dadka ku nool gobalka oo dhan. Waa qodabkaas danbe midda ay qormadaan faafaahin doonto.

Khatarta kasoo muuqata loollaankaan waa mid dhowr waji leh dalalka Geeska-Afrikana si kale duwan u saamayn doonta. Qaar waxay isku dayayaan inay ka mid noqdaan kuwa loollanka ku jira ee wax qaybsanaya halka qaar ay yihiin dhibbanayaal dhab ah oo dhibta ugu weyn ay kaligood ku dhici doonto. Soomaalida (Soomaaliya iyo Jabbuuti) waxay noqon doontaa dhibbane la hubo hadduusan Eebbe faraj kale furin.

Halis Siyaasadee

Waddamada ku harmadayo hanashada siyaasadda Bariga Afrika waxaan ku dheegnay inay carab u badan yihiin. Qaabka waddamada Carbeed wax u rabaan waa mid khar weyn ku ah horumarka mandhiqadda.

Ma jiro calaaqaad iyo dano mideeyo oo ka dhaxeeyo dalalka Carabta iyo kuwa Afrikaanka. Xariirka ka dhaxeeyana wuxuu ku qotomaa mid ka dhashay xariirka dhexmaro madaxda markaas talada hayso. Madaxda Carabtu, dhammaan waxay madaxda Afrika siiyaan miisaaniyad joogta. Lacagtaas badan waxay ku badashaan in madaxda Afrika ay daacad u noqdaan kuwa Carabta marki loo baahadana ay codkooda iyo cududdooda ku taageeraan.  Tusaale muddo dheer Senigaal waxay taageero dhaqaale ka heli jirtay Sacuudiga. Sanadki 2012ki ayaa la doortay madaxweynaha talada hayo mudane Sall. Waqtigaas wuxuu ballan qaaday fulinta qorshaha horumarinta Sanigaal. mashruucaas ayaa u baahday lacag gaarayso 16.8 bilyan doolar.

Wax badan lagama fulin qorshihii uu doorashada kusoo galay walow uu dhacdhac badan helay madaxweyne Sall. Waxaa xog hoose lagu helay in Sacuudigu bixiyay maal gaarayo $216 milyan oo doolar sanadki 2015ki oo aan caddayn waxa ay tahay meesha loogu talagalay. Taas baddalkeeda Sanigaal waxay ciidamo ka badan 2000 oo askari u dirtay Yemen si ay u caawiyaan Sacuudiga.

Siyaasadda noocaan ah halista ay leedahay ayaa ah in Carabtu aysan isku shuqlin horumarinta iyo hagaajinta xariirka kala dhaxeeyo Afrika taasoo keeni lahayd xariir siyaasadeed, mid dhaqaale iyo dhaqan oo dhex maro Afrika iyo Carabta. Sidoo kale, habdhaqanka Carabta wuxuu xoojiyanayaa musuqa ka jiro qaaradda wuxuuna cudud siinayaa madaxweynayaasha kursi ku dhagga ah ee ka taliyo Afrika.

Sidoo kale, qaadashada sandareertada ayaa madaxda Afrika ka dhigtay in loo arko kuwa hooseeyo. Carabtu, sida ree Galbeedkuba, ulama dhaqmaan madaxda Afrika si kuwo la siman, waxaa sidaa ka dhigayna waa in madaxda Afrikaanku lacag waydiistaan Carabta marki ay booqdaan. Sida loo quursado Afrika waxaa tusaale noogu filan sida loola dhaqmay waqtigii la tuuri rabay AUN korneel Qadaafi.

Midowga Afrika wuxuu si dag dag ooga shiray xaaladda Liibiya maadaama ay tahay dal Afrikaan ah. Midowga ayaa go’aamiyay qorshe nabadeed cad kaasoo dalkaas wax ka badbaadi lahaa. Qorshahaas oo ahaa in si nabad dalka looga sameeya isbaddalka ay dadku rabaan ayaa waxaa gaashaanka ku dhuftay dalalka carabta iyo Galbeedka. Maadaama Afrika aysan xoog ciidan lahayn madaxdeeduna horay cunno badan ugu maqnayd aad uma aysan qaylin marki lagu tuntay qorshihii ay rabeen in dalkaas lagu badbaadiyo. Wixii xigay waa midda laga wada shallaayayo maanta.

Intaas waxaa dheer, waddamada Khaliijku Barika Afrika wuxuu u yahay ahmiyadda saddexaad haddii uusaan ahayn midda afraad. Waxay u badan tahay ahmiyadda Bariga Afrika waxa keenay inay tahay xariirka ay la leedahay kuwa culayska ku hayo Khaliijka sida Iiraan iyo Yemen. Khatarta arrintaan ka dhalanayso ayaa ah in xariirka lagu saleeyo xaaladda markaas taagan taas oo noqon korto si, matalanba, Iiraan looga adkaadao in la dumiyo cid walba oo xariir la leh sida Yemen lagu sameeyayba.

Halista Loollanka xeebaha Bariga Afrika

Muddo 25 sano ka badan xeebaha Bariga Afrika waxay ahaayeen kuwo nabdoon oo uusan is rixriix ka jirin. Eritareeya iyada unbaa isku koobtay xeebaheeda meel kalana wax kama aysan dayin, Soomaaliya amni darro iyo dowlad la’aan ayaa indhaha caalamka ka weeciyay ku tartamidda xeebaheeda. Jabbuuti ayaa iyadoon cidna loollan kula jirin ka suud-daaqday xeebaheeda iyadoo kulmisay ganacsiga Itoobiya, Maalgashiyo shisheeye iyo saldhigyo ciidamo kala duwan.

Laakiin xasilloonidaas waxay isu baddashay si dhaqso. Waxaa si kadis agh u bilowday ku tartamidda xeebaha gobalka. Sidoo kale, gobalka naftisia ayaa billaabay u tartamidda cid maalgaliso xeebahiisa. Itoobiya oo ah dalka ugu weyn ee lagu tartamayo inuu noqdo macmiil ayaa heshiishyo aan xad lahayn la galay dhammaan dalalka dariska la eh ee badaha leh. Waxay heshiis ah inay baddooda isticmaalayaan la gashay, Jabbuuti, Soomaaliya oo labo ah, Kiinya iyo Suudaan iyo Eritaerrya oo hadda howsheedu socoto.

Dhowr arrimood ayaa keenay inay dakedo badan raadiso Itoobiya. Kow, ku tiirsanaanta hal daket waxay Itoobiya ka dhigaysaa mid taag daran oo u hoggaansato waxa uu rabo dalka leh dekaddaas. Sidaa darteed inay hesho meelo badan oo ay wax kala soo dagto waxay keenaysaa kalsooni shacabkeeda iyo dowladduba ay ku seexdaan. Labo, la heshiinta dowlado badan oo mid walba rabo in la isticmaalo dakeddiisa waxay keenaysaa in beeca la isku eryo sidaasna ay Itoobiya qiimo jaban ku hesho adeegga ay u baahan tahay. Saddex, Itoobiya waxay u aragtaa tartanka socdo mid lagu qaybsanayo Bariga Afrika sidii dhacdayba 1884’ti, inay qaybta ka qadin ee sidii awalba ay wax ooga heshay ay haddana wax ooga hesho ayay u xarbinaysaa. Inshallah qormo arrintaan u gaar ah ayaan soo dhigi doonaa.

Hunguri wax ka weyn waa dillaaciyaan

Jabbuuti ayaa inta aysan dalalkaan kale soo galin tartanka dajisay qorshe fog oo hormarineed. Qorshahaan oo loogu wanqalay Jabuuti 2035’ta ayaa ah in Jabuuti ay noqoto xarunta ugu weyn ee ay ku gashiimaan maraakiibta ku safarto Badda-cas iyo inay noqoto xarunta kala wareegga badeecadaha ka yimaad Shiinaha ee u socda Afrika.

Sanadkaan horraantisi ayaa xarigga laga jaray jid tareen oo dheerarkiisu yahay 750KM kasoo isku xirayo Jabuuti iyo Itoobiya. Tareenkaan oo ay ku baxday $3.4 bilyan oo doolar ayaa sahlay safarka badeecadaha isaga gooshi jiray Jabuuti iyo Itoobiya. Gaaska laga helay gobalka Soomaalida ee ay Itoobiya guumaysato ayaa isna la doonayaa in laga dhoofiyo Jabuuti. Julaay shanteedi ee sanadkaan ayaa sidoo kale, waxaa xarigga laga jaray aagga ganacsiga furan (free trade zone). Goobtaan ayaa ah midda Afrika ugu weyn waxayna qaadan doontaa in la dhammays tiro muddo 10 sano ah. Wajiga kowaad hadda xariga laga jaray waxaa ku baxay $3.5 bilyan doolar. Xaruntaan ayaa loogu talagalay inay lagu kala qaybiyo badeecadaha u socdo Afrikada aan badda lahayn sida Koonfurta Suudaan, Ruwaanda, Burindi iyo Yugaandha.

Si loo helo daketo fulin karo qorshaha Jabuuti, waxay dowladdu maalgalisay dakedda Doorale oo ay ku baxday adduun gaarayo $590 milyan oo doolar. Waxay sidoo kale, maalgalisay kuwa yar yar sida midda Tajuura oo loo calaamadeeyay inay kasoo dagaan cuntooyinka u socdo Itoobiya iyo Dameerjoog oo loo asteeyay in laga dhoofiyo gaaska dabeeciga ah ee laga qodayo dhulka Soomaalida.

Yaa bixinayo lacagta sidaan u badan?

Sida muqaato mashaariicdaan waxaa ku baxayo lacago balaayiin. Yaa bixinayo maxayse ka helaysaa cidda maalgalisay? Dhammaan maalgashiga dekadaha iyo kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha ee socdo wuxuu ka imaanayaa Shiine iyo Imaaraat. Mashaariicda balaayiinta dhaaftay ee aan kor ku xusnay waxaa maalgaliyay Shiine. Shiine wuxuu wadaa dhisamaha mashruuc loo bixiyay soo noolaynta jidkii jidkii xariirta. Jidkaan ayaa isku xiri jiray Shiine iyo dunida inteeda kale qaruumihi dhexe. Qorshahaan ayaa hadda ah in jid bad iyo birriba ah oo kasoo baxo Shiine oo maro Afrika iyo Aasiya la dhiso si Shiine u noqdo dalka haysta goobaha ugu istiraatijisan dunida.

Geeska Afrika ayaa hal bowle u ah fulinta mashruuca jidki xariirta. Jabuuti ayuu Shiine u doortay inay noqoto saldhigga ugu muhiimsan ee Afrika mashruucaan ku leeyahay. Si taas loo xaqiijiyo Shiine wuxuu si miyir la’aan ah qaan ah u siiyay Jabuuti. Labo sano gudahood qaanta bannaanka laga leeyahay ee ay qabto Jabuuti wuxuu ka kacay 50% wax soo saarka dalka wuxuuna gaaray 75%. Taasi waxay ka dhigan tahay 75% dakhliga soo galo Jabuuti waa qaan. Ma jiro dal kale oo ka mid ah waddamada soo korayo halkaas qaanta lagu leeyahay ay gaartay. Maanka ku haay in ree Jabuuti oo hal milyan ka yar ay wali ka mid yihiin dadka ugu saboolsan dunida iyadoo intaas oo deyn ah dalka la galiyay. 23% waxay ku noolyihiin saboolnimo aad u daran shaqa la’aantuna waa 60%.

Qaanta maanta ay qabto Jabuuti maahan mid ay awood u leedahay inay bixiso. Waa si xowli ah u kordhi doono dulsaar ilaa uu gaaro heer aan an la hawaysan karin bixintiisa. Awal sidii wax ahaayeen ma adkayn in la sawirto in dekadahaan is bixiyaan oo Jabuuti aysan qasaarin waayo qorsha ayaa ahaa in isticmaalka Itoobiya ee dekadaha Jabuuti uusan ka hoos mari doonin 80%. Qorshahaas waxaa lagu saleeyay inuusan dhawaan dhici doonin heshiis dhex maro Itoobiya iyo Eritareeya iyo inaysan marnaba suuragal noqon doonin in Itoobiya isticmaasho dekadaha Soomaalia. Hasa ahaatee isbaddallada dag dagga ah ee dhacay ayaa soo saaray sawir madow marki  laga eego dhinaca Jabuuti.

Sidaan ku arki doonno qormada middaan xigto, hadii dekadaha Eritareeya howl galaan, Jabuuti waxay lumin doontaa in ku dhow kala bar isticmaalka Itoobiya. Taasina waa sababta ay Jabuuti af labadii u yeertay markay aragtay Eritareeya oo suuqa tartarnka akusoo laaban rabto. Caaqibada ka dhalan doonto inay Jabuuti bixin waydo dulsaarka qaanta ay qabto ayaa ah in Shiine la wareego maamulka meelaha uu maalgaliyay oo ay kow ka yihiin dakedaha oo ah isha kaliya ee Jabuuti ay dhaqaale ka hesho.

Arrintaan maahan mid qarsoon. Shiine wuxuu horay sidaas oo kale ugu sameeyay dalka Siiralaanka. Hasa yeeshee Jabuuti way dhib iyo halis badnaan Siiralaanka. Xeebta Jabuuti ee Shiine isu gaagaabinayo waxa saldhiggiisa ugu weyn ee Afrika ku leh ciidamada Maraykanka. Shiine ayaa isuguna ka dhistay saldhiggisi ugu horreeyay ee uu ku yeesho dibadda dalkiisa. Labada saldhig ee Shiine iyo Maraykan waxay isu jiraan lix mayl kaliya. Sanadkaan gudihiisa waxaa hawada isu mariyeen eedaymo midba kan kale uu ku eedeeyay daandaansi. Waxaa cad in Shiinuhu si ku talagal ah u doortay saldhiggiisa meesha uu ka dhigayo iyo ujeedka uu ka leeyahay lacagta aan loo meeldayin ee uu ku shubayo jeebka Isciil Cumar Geelle. La soco qormada xigta si aan u fahanno khatarta wajiyada badan ee soo foodsaartay Jabuuti iyo waxa la filan karo hadduu Shiine la wareego gacan ku haynta xeebaha Jabuuti taasoo aad u dhici karta.

W/Q: Ibrahim Aden Shire

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